F1 2014 Race Weekend Thread [Archive] - Page 2

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Insomniac

11-09-14, 03:34 PM

Well, a pretty ho-hum race weekend. Now we're here for double points. It's not a total disaster scenario since Rosberg closed the gap to 17 pts. Hamilton needs to finish 2nd or better to guarantee the championship.

Scenarios:

Hamilton
Finishes 2nd or higher
Finishes 3rd-5th and Rosberg finishes 2nd or lower
Finishes 6th and Rosberg finishes 3rd or lower
Finishes 7th-8th and Rosberg finishes 4th or lower
Finishes 9th and Rosberg finishes 5th or lower
Rosberg finishes 6th or lower

Rosberg
Finishes 1st and Hamilton finishes 3rd or lower
Finishes 2nd and Hamilton finishes 6th or lower
Finishes 3rd and Hamilton finishes 7th or lower
Finishes 4th and Hamilton finishes 9th or lower
Finishes 5th and Hamilton finishes 10th or lower

No scenario would result in a need for a tie breaker.

Without Double Points for the curious:

Hamilton
Finishes 1st-6th*
Finishes 7th-10th* and Rosberg finishes 2nd or lower
Rosberg finishes 3rd or lower

*Champion on tie breaker

Rosberg
Finishes 1st and Hamilton finishes 7th or lower
Finishes 2nd and Hamilton finishes 11th or lower

WickerBill

11-09-14, 03:54 PM

Rosberg finally, finally kept his nerve with Hamilton right behind him.

Was there information given on what really happened to Bottas?

cameraman

11-09-14, 07:17 PM

He had problems with his belts that had to be fixed on the first stop and then later he had debris blocking up his front wing elements that took a while to dig out making for a bad stint and slow second stop. Just wasn't his day.

Dave99

11-09-14, 08:18 PM

Well, a pretty ho-hum race weekend. Now we're here for double points. It's not a total disaster scenario since Rosberg closed the gap to 17 pts. Hamilton needs to finish 2nd or better to guarantee the championship.
Thank you! That answers the question I've been asking myself since last week's GP at Texas. The broadcast team (mostly motor-mouth Diffey) has yammered on and on the last few races about Abu Dhabi paying double points for a win, yet they haven't taken into account double points for second (or they at least haven't bothered to mention it during any of their practice, qual or pre-race shows the last few races).

Why Hobbs, on the last lap of today's race, said that Hamilton *absolutely* has to win in Abu Dhabi to win the championship exscapes me. :confused: :gomer:

WickerBill

11-09-14, 08:39 PM

Why Hobbs, on the last lap of today's race, said that Hamilton *absolutely* has to win in Abu Dhabi to win the championship exscapes me. :confused: :gomer:

He went to Twitter after the broadcast to mention that he's dumb, and misspoke.

Mary

11-10-14, 09:36 AM

WickerBill

11-10-14, 09:47 AM

Sigh. Guess I am done supporting McLaren for a couple of years.

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/116713

And I can't support Ferrari because of Vettel... and I'm not going to bandwagon on the Merc train... so Red Bull perhaps.

I just really wanted to see Jenson win a few with Honda.

Insomniac

11-10-14, 10:29 AM

Thanks for the explanation, Insomniac. Double points are silly, but it is what it is and the rules are the same for everybody. What I don't like is that the season ending race is in Abu Dhabi. I know they paid a lot of money for it, but .....

Mary

The idea of weighting a single race like this just seems bad for racing. Too many things can happen in a race. F1 isn't fixing the results, but the end result can still be skewed. For me a nightmare scenario would've been Hamilton wins Brazil, Rosberg DNFs. Hamilton has a 49 pt lead and DNFs while Rosberg wins the race and championship. You could probably apply double points to any race and alter the final standings over a singular event. I'm glad it's gone next year. Some years it will be close, others it may not be. Focus on the technical regulations!

Insomniac

11-10-14, 10:53 AM

WickerBill

11-10-14, 11:36 AM

You have too much hate. You're going to have a reason to be against everyone soon. :)

I do, it's true!

My favorite drivers in F1 have always been those that seem the least like total abject jerks (also why I loved deFerran). So over the last few years I've cheered Button, Webber, Heikki... now it seems like Ricciardo is my best bet if Jenson is gone.

Still struggle to understand Ron taking Alonso back. Perhaps Ron knows that they will be absolutely dismal for two years and he's more or less taking Alonso's career out back and shooting it.

Insomniac

11-10-14, 12:27 PM

I do, it's true!

My favorite drivers in F1 have always been those that seem the least like total abject jerks (also why I loved deFerran). So over the last few years I've cheered Button, Webber, Heikki... now it seems like Ricciardo is my best bet if Jenson is gone.

Still struggle to understand Ron taking Alonso back. Perhaps Ron knows that they will be absolutely dismal for two years and he's more or less taking Alonso's career out back and shooting it.

I'm all in with Hamilton. It took me a couple years to come around to him (maybe in 2010, definitely in 2011), but he's my guy now.

I think winning makes people forget and get over pretty fast. Alonso is a very good driver, certainly among the best so it makes sense to want him. Unless you're going to hit on a driver like they did with Hamilton, who is better than Alonso that is available? Now I think they're trying to decide whether they want the best chance at as many points as possible (Alonso & Button), planning for the future (get a younger partner, keep Magnussen or move on to another driver), or if Alonso has the rumored one year deal keep a veteran (Button) .

stroker

11-10-14, 04:15 PM

It's possible Honda had something to say about the driver situation, too.

NismoZ

11-10-14, 08:19 PM

How do you spell Takuma Sato?:gomer:

chop456

11-11-14, 02:32 AM

Perhaps Ron knows that they will be absolutely dismal for two years and he's more or less taking Alonso's career out back and shooting it.

I hadn't considered this, but I like it a lot. :D

Easy

11-11-14, 07:07 PM

I do, it's true!

Still struggle to understand Ron taking Alonso back. Perhaps Ron knows that they will be absolutely dismal for two years and he's more or less taking Alonso's career out back and shooting it.

I think the push for Alonso came from Mumtalakat. Ron's not cheap but I don't see McLaren alone coughing up the rumored $80 million.

Insomniac

11-22-14, 03:54 PM

I was curious in light of the possibility tomorrow that Hamilton could win 10 races and not win the championship how often that happened in the past. Nothing would be as bad as winning 10 and losing to someone who won 5 or 6. The current worst is 7 wins and no title. Biggest gap between the champ and most wins is 3. The full list:

2008 Hamilton, 5 Wins to Massa's 6
1989 Prost, 4 wins to Senna's 6
1987 Piquet, 3 wins to Mansell's 6
1986 Prost, 4 wins to Mansell's 5
1984 Lauda, 5 wins to Prost's 7
1983 Piquet, 3 wins to Prost's 4
1982 Rosberg, 1 win to Pironi's, Watson's, Prost's, Lauda's and Arnoux's 2 each
1979 Scheckter, 3 wins to Jones' 4
1977 Lauda, 3 wins to Andretti's 4
1967 Hulme, 2 wins to Clark's 4
1964 Surtees, 2 wins to Clark's 3
1958 Hawthorn, 1 win to Moss' 4

Interesting it has happened once in the last 25 years. There was an era of it happening a lot (late 70s-80s) and 3 times in the first 27 years.

mapguy

11-22-14, 05:21 PM

^ TBH in 2008 it was Hamilton with 6 and Massa with 5 but the Ferrari International Assistance stole one win from Hammy and gave it to Massa at Spa.

gjc2

11-22-14, 05:57 PM

Years ago there were more DNFs due to mechanical issues. Seeing someone unable to start the engine on the grid was more common.

Insomniac

11-22-14, 10:29 PM

^ TBH in 2008 it was Hamilton with 6 and Massa with 5 but the Ferrari International Assistance stole one win from Hammy and gave it to Massa at Spa.

Speaking of Ferrari, I was surprised how I had already forgotten how close Alonso/Ferrari came to winning a title. How easily the 4 years of Red Bull/Vettel turned into absolute dominance, but they had to fight tooth and nail more than they dominated.

cameraman

11-23-14, 02:28 PM

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3IlfF3CAAA6tuD.jpg

cameraman

11-23-14, 03:50 PM

Oh the British are a strange lot…

SkySport video I can't embed

http://vid.me/dLuO

I've never heard of a "lucky nipple tweek" before...

gjc2

11-23-14, 05:17 PM

Oh the British are a strange lot…

SkySport video I can't embed

http://vid.me/dLuO

I've never heard of a "lucky nipple tweek" before...

I'm never going to look at those guys same way.

Pilgrims Drop

11-23-14, 07:27 PM

So in the most dominant car in a VERY long time... there are no "it's the car" comments anywhere... strange

SteveH

11-23-14, 08:19 PM

So in the most dominant car in a VERY long time... there are no "it's the car" comments anywhere... strange

Good point. Several (not necessarily here) want to hang an asterisk on Button's WDC for the same.

cameraman

11-23-14, 08:56 PM

First off, no kidding I hadn't noticed.
Second because it was two drivers racing on an even field as opposed to Vettel/Webber or Schmacher/anyone.

SteveH

11-23-14, 09:26 PM

http://i.imgur.com/KkA9Oqj.png

gjc2

11-24-14, 06:59 AM

So in the most dominant car in a VERY long time... there are no "it's the car" comments anywhere... strange

Are you advocating for a spec formula?

Insomniac

11-24-14, 11:51 AM

So in the most dominant car in a VERY long time... there are no "it's the car" comments anywhere... strange

I'd say from my perspective, they had the best car, but what was special about it? Three other teams had the same engine. Was there an aero trick they came up with that no one else did (double diffuser, blown diffuser are examples from the past)?

Good point. Several (not necessarily here) want to hang an asterisk on Button's WDC for the same.

I don't want to hang an asterisk on it, he won it, but I definitely don't think he's a championship caliber driver. His record outside of that season backs that up. Hamilton had a record of winning before. Button didn't have much of one before or after. (1 win before, 6 during and 8 since)

WickerBill

11-24-14, 12:50 PM

Pilgrims Drop

11-24-14, 03:21 PM

Are you advocating for a spec formula?

NO! Absolutely not... just curious as to why there are no comments like this when it's been almost a given in anything concerning Seb Vettel...

Insomniac

11-24-14, 04:19 PM

Dunno man...

2010: Lewis beats Jenson by 24 points - Jenson's first season with team (Wins: 3-2 Lewis)
2011: Jenson beats Lewis by 43 points (and beats Webber/RBR to second in the championship - Lewis finished 5th) (Wins: tied 3-3)
2012: Lewis beats Jenson by 2 points (Wins: 4-3 Lewis)

Hamilton is flashier... I'd kindly suggest you've been blinded by the earrings or something. :)

I wasn't trying to compare him directly to Hamilton, he was more an example as the recent champion. Button is a very good technical driver. It's all subjective I guess. Vettel was out-classed by Ricciardo this season. Vettel dominated Webber. Was Vettel just the better driver in a real good car?

It would be pretty hard to convince me today that Button is as good as Alonso, Vettel or Hamilton. I'd put him in with Massa, Webber and Rosberg. (If I'm trying to place him within his recent peers.)

opinionated ow

11-25-14, 07:11 AM

I'd say from my perspective, they had the best car, but what was special about it? Three other teams had the same engine. Was there an aero trick they came up with that no one else did (double diffuser, blown diffuser are examples from the past)?

Apart from cubic dollars? Mercedes-AMG knew about the split-turbine well before their customers did so they designed the back end of the car around that. There are some comparison drawings somewhere that overlays the differing bodywork but I'm buggered if I can remember where I saw them

Insomniac

11-25-14, 03:01 PM

Apart from cubic dollars? Mercedes-AMG knew about the split-turbine well before their customers did so they designed the back end of the car around that. There are some comparison drawings somewhere that overlays the differing bodywork but I'm buggered if I can remember where I saw them

Maybe you are thinking of this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuBB2F6IutQ

I had no idea about it until today. They had a head start for sure over their customers, but their customers didn't really close the gap over the course of the season either.

SteveH

11-26-14, 06:54 PM

2014 MODEL-BASED DRIVER RANKINGS (https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2014/11/26/2014-model-based-driver-rankings/)

2014 was a year completely dominated by the Mercedes team, with the barest sniff of the title for Ricciardo. But who would have won the title if all cars had been equal? Were the Mercedes drivers the year’s best performers, or would other drivers have looked even better behind the wheel of a Mercedes? That’s a question you could debate for hours. Alternatively, we can pose the question to a mathematical model, such as the one I previously used to estimate all-time driver rankings.

In a nutshell, my model ignores races for each driver where they had non-driver failures (e.g., mechanical DNFs), then uses points per race in each of the remaining races as a performance metric for each season. While this is not a perfect metric (e.g., it doesn’t assign blame for crashes), it does capture one of the most important aspects of driver performance, and it can be easily applied across the board to all historical races without any subjective interpretation. Note that the model uses a scoring system based on the 10-6-4-3-2-1 system and includes fractional points for all lower race positions, allowing it to differentiate between drivers who finish 13th and 19th, for example.

Performance is assumed to be a function of both the driver’s performance and their team’s performance. Using the race results from 1950-2014, the model estimates the performance of each driver and each team so as to statistically best fit the race result data. This is possible because drivers are connected to one another by many different teammates, allowing their relative performances to be estimated.

Interesting approach. Lots of underlying data. Much too deep for a quick read.