Qaddafi Duck

[Michaelhatesfans]

Do they really let loose with 100+ missiles and ground attack aircraft without at least a wink and a nod from the Arab League? :rolleyes:

I doubt it. They play the same game as the Russians. "Yeah, go for it. You have our full support. We're just going to sit on the sidelines and abuse you every step of the way."

[nrc]

F15 goes down over Libya. Crew safe. Reportedly mechanical issues.

[Gnam]

The Italians sent an aircraft carrier to join the fleet. It normally carries (8) Harriers.

That makes (3) big deck carriers floating off Libya: one American, one French, one Italian.

I didn't know the Italians had an aircraft carrier. They have two.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_aircraft_carrier_Giuseppe_Garibaldi_(551)

[NismoZ]

Yeah, League Of Nations, Indy Racing League, Arab League...all pretty successful.

[Gnam]

National Football League, League of Women Voters, 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea...all end in disaster. ;)

[Ankf00]

don't forget the Athenian League, the mother of all League failure

[Michaelhatesfans]

I didn't know the Italians had an aircraft carrier. They have two.


Are they red?

[NismoZ]

Seriously, how would you like to be a Libyan fighter pilot who gets the order to scramble and head out into the Gulf Of Sidra to defend Q' Duck's new national border against Regan's fleet...or this latest guy who got the honor of testing French enforcement of the no-fly zone? Huh, the French shoot down an enemy plane. There 's something you don't read about every day! Does this make Sarkozy the leader of the Free World?

[Elmo T]

Are they doing this wrong?

Fifth night of airstrikes unable to stop Gadhafi (http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/24/libya.war/)


Focusing now on Libyan ground forces, coalition jets pounded targets for a fifth consecutive night but so far have been unable to stop Moammar Gadhafi's armor.

I wouldn't think armored units would have had much chance against a well organized coalition air assault. No A-10s or AH-64s in use?

[Elmo T]

Huh, the French shoot down an enemy plane. There 's something you don't read about every day!

I had to check on that one:

Warplane Shot Down (http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Libya-No-Fly-Zone-French-Fighter-Jets-Shoot-Down-Gaddafi-Forces-Warplane-Near-Misratah/Article/201103415959453?lpos=World_News_Top_Stories_Header _3&lid=ARTICLE_15959453_Libya%2C_No-Fly_Zone%3A_French_Fighter_Jets_Shoot_Down_Gaddafi _Forces_Warplane_Near_Misratah)

It was a Soko G-2 Galeb. Not the most formidable aircraft to have in an air-to-air battle. :gomer:

[KLang]

Are they doing this wrong?

Fifth night of airstrikes unable to stop Gadhafi (http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/24/libya.war/)



I wouldn't think armored units would have had much chance against a well organized coalition air assault. No A-10s or AH-64s in use?

Seems to be more of a PR campaign then a military campaign.

[chop456]

Are they red?

No, but I'll bet they have state of the art Espresso machines.

[Gnam]

No A-10s or AH-64s in use?

Nope. No close air support. No kill boxes.

[Don Quixote]

I had to check on that one:

Warplane Shot Down (http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Libya-No-Fly-Zone-French-Fighter-Jets-Shoot-Down-Gaddafi-Forces-Warplane-Near-Misratah/Article/201103415959453?lpos=World_News_Top_Stories_Header _3&lid=ARTICLE_15959453_Libya%2C_No-Fly_Zone%3A_French_Fighter_Jets_Shoot_Down_Gaddafi _Forces_Warplane_Near_Misratah)

It was a Soko G-2 Galeb. Not the most formidable aircraft to have in an air-to-air battle. :gomer:There is a phrase that describes the pilot of that Libyan plane: "cannon fodder"



No, but I'll bet they have state of the art Espresso machines. And bitchin biscotti!

[dando]

No A-10s or AH-64s in use?

IIRC, the Warthogs have been retired. :saywhat:

-Kevin

[Elmo T]

IIRC, the Warthogs have been retired. :saywhat:

-Kevin

I know the PA ANG 111th Fighter Wing at Willow Grove JRB were losing theirs, but I didn't think they've parked them all. Not sure what would replace it. :confused:

[chop456]

It was a Soko G-2 Galeb. Not the most formidable aircraft to have in an air-to-air battle. :gomer:

I just hope it wasn't some guy trying to make a run for it and 'defect'. :\

[Gnam]

Yeah, with all those ships off the coast they're not taking any chances of a kamikaze attack. But I'd hope if he was trying to defect, his radio transmission of surrender would have been heard by someone.

[nrc]

IIRC, the Warthogs have been retired. :saywhat:

-Kevin

Nope. Every time they try to kill it they run into a minor problem like a battle space full of old T60s and T72s that the fast jets can't seem to clean up. So the latest word is that the Warthog will be around until at least 2028 in some numbers.

But, as usual, the Air Force will only bring them in as a last resort. Partly because they hate to admit that they still need the old hog, but also because the altitudes it operates at put it at risk from the more portable anti-aircraft threats that they can't get off the battlefield.

Ha. Did I say "battlefield?" I meant "humanitarian no-fly zone." :)

[Elmo T]

Partly because they hate to admit that they still need the old hog, but also because the altitudes it operates at put it at risk

Like I can hit it with a well thrown baseball - or at least with my BB gun. ;)

I'd think a few A-10 sorties would clear up their armored forces issue - assuming we really wanted to clear it up. :rolleyes:

[NismoZ]

Good on the Warthog news.:thumbup: Just heard that "shot down" Libyan plane may actually have been destroyed on the ground, landing AFTER violating the no-fly zone. Now, if the Mirage jock let the guy run for cover before opening up on it, then it really MUST be a "humanitarian" zone. It's just a "kinetic conflict" :confused: anyway, no sense in hurting anybody.

[Michaelhatesfans]

No, but I'll bet they have state of the art Espresso machines.

Tiramisu in the mess hall:thumbup:

[NismoZ]

Geez, NATO voted 28-0 (the only vote that works) to continue protecting the"innocents" in Libya. Shouldn't it really be a "no-fly, no tank, no artillery, no organized army zone?" And, the UAE joins in! Nuthin' like a little Arab-On-Arab action. That'll end it.

[Gnam]

Now, if the Mirage jock let the guy run for cover before opening up on it, then it really MUST be a "humanitarian" zone. It's just a "kinetic conflict" :confused: anyway, no sense in hurting anybody.

Reminds me of a GI Joe cartoon: Red and Blue laser fire everywhere, no casualties.


http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/2396/gijoethebattleshirt.png

[devilmaster]

Reminds me of a GI Joe cartoon: Red and Blue laser fire everywhere, no casualties.


http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/2396/gijoethebattleshirt.png

Now I wanna go watch the laser hockey battle on the top of the world....

[KLang]

Have we got enough planes to cover Syria too? :gomer:

[TKGAngel]

Anyone who had Canada in the "next government to fall" pool just won a ton of money.

Do we start enforcing a no-fly on the Canucks? A no-border cross policy for invading shoppers? :gomer:

[cameraman]

Anyone who had Canada in the "next government to fall" pool just won a ton of money.

Do we start enforcing a no-fly on the Canucks? A no-border cross policy for invading shoppers? :gomer:

Looks like American stealth fighters took down yet another government:laugh:

[Gnam]

I wouldn't think armored units would have had much chance against a well organized coalition air assault. No A-10s or AH-64s in use?

Air force now talking about gun ships...


[T]he Pentagon was considering bringing in side-firing AC-130 gunships, helicopters and armed drone aircraft that could challenge Libyan ground forces that threaten civilians in cities like Misrata.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110325/ap_on_re_us/us_us_libya


Do tanks and mechanized infantry count as "boots on the ground"?
Just tell the Marines all the ground in Libya is lava. :p

[nrc]

Air force now talking about gun ships...

I can understand the interest, the AC130 can be a hammer or a scalpel as needed. But since we're talking about a regular army that almost certainly still has MANPADs in their inventory, it seems pretty high risk.

[stroker]

Nuke it from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

[Ankf00]

but then the euros lose all "their" oil.

[nrc]

Gunships and warthogs worked over Qaddafi's forces over the weekend. Thus the hasty retreat.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us_deploys_low_flying_attack_planes_in_libya/2011/03/26/AF9grPqB_story.html?wprss=rss_homepage

Get the impression they're soft pedaling our involvement? We're basically providing close air support for the rebels at this point.

[KLang]

Gunships and warthogs worked over Qaddafi's forces over the weekend. Thus the hasty retreat.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us_deploys_low_flying_attack_planes_in_libya/2011/03/26/AF9grPqB_story.html?wprss=rss_homepage

Get the impression they're soft pedaling our involvement? We're basically providing close air support for the rebels at this point.

I wonder if that is what the UN had in mind? Perhaps it is, anything bad happens the US is to blame.

[NismoZ]

Always!:irked:

[Gnam]

Seems like the choice is between cutting off the head of the snake by killing Qaddafi or putting troops on the ground to destroy his army.

[Elmo T]

Seems like the choice is between cutting off the head of the snake by killing Qaddafi or putting troops on the ground to destroy his army.

Libyan government tanks and rockets pounded rebel forces into a panicked full retreat Tuesday (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/af_libya)


Prime Minister David Cameron, however, said Britain had received reports that it was Gadhafi who was pounding Misrata, the main rebel holdout in the west, and relentlessly targeting civilians.

"Gadhafi is using snipers to shoot them down and let them bleed to death in the street. He has cut off food, water and electricity to starve them into submission," Cameron said.

IMHO - IF we are going to do this, we need to do it right - and we better do it soon. If not, then it is time to GTFO.

[Steve99]

Do we start enforcing a no-fly on the Canucks?
Will the no-fly zone apply to old Dallaras?

[Steve99]

The Italians sent an aircraft carrier to join the fleet. It normally carries (8) Harriers.

That makes (3) big deck carriers floating off Libya: one American, one French, one Italian.

I didn't know the Italians had an aircraft carrier. They have two.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_aircraft_carrier_Giuseppe_Garibaldi_(551)
I'm not sure carrying 8 Harriers makes it a "big deck" carrier.

[Gnam]

Although Qaddafi originally opened fire on the protestors in Tripoli, there were signs the military did not support him. Several high ranking officers backed the rebels, pilots refused to attack civilians, and military bases opened up their armories to the rebels.

A military coup like in Egypt would have been the ideal solution, as it could have maintained order and prevented civil war. However, that initial period of doubt among the officers has now passed. The military and hired mercenaries are now backing Qaddafi despite facing attacks from the Coalition and the rebels.

At some point the air attacks won't be able to do any more damage.
Even if the Libyan army is stripped of all its armor and artillery, they will maintain the advantage with better training, an organized chain of command, and a clear mission to kill everything that moves.

So far the Coalition has only been willing to degrade Qaddafi's forces. It's clear now that unless they are also willing to upgrade the rebel forces with weapons, coordinated offensive strikes, and reinforcements, then Qaddafi will win a bloody war of attrition.

[stroker]

I suspect there are some spooks sending faxes to The Duck's senior officers promising suitcases full of 500 Euro notes (see Afghanistan) for certain "favors"....

[Gnam]

I'm not sure carrying 8 Harriers makes it a "big deck" carrier.

Don't let the Italians hear you say that. Fugheddaboudit. :p

[dando]

Will the no-fly zone apply to Indy?

Fixed. :tony:

-Kevin

[nrc]

Covert aid to the rebels has been approved. But evidently someone is confused by the meaning of "covert" and "secret".

http://abcnews.go.com/International/president-obama-authorizes-covert-libyan-rebels/story?id=13259028

[NismoZ]

Speaking of covert, I think Toyota is getting a HUGE ROI with the free international TV advertising from Libya, courtesy of all the news networks. Toyotas all over the place! A little worse for the wear, but the 1st thing the viewer notices (right AFTER the AAguns and rocket launchers) is the big ol' logo on the tailgate!:) (Certainly more than Honda gets from Indy!)

[Ankf00]

for every land rover on a national geographic special you'll see 3 toyotas

[Steve99]

Speaking of covert, I think Toyota is getting a HUGE ROI with the free international TV advertising from Libya, courtesy of all the news networks. Toyotas all over the place! A little worse for the wear, but the 1st thing the viewer notices (right AFTER the AAguns and rocket launchers) is the big ol' logo on the tailgate!:) (Certainly more than Honda gets from Indy!)

I'm getting the AA gun option package on my next Toyota. I hope it doesn't make the CD player skip.

[Gnam]

Over.

US to stand down all forces.
Rebels call for Cease Fire.
Qaddafi Duck lives.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2011/03/29/national/w085508D96.DTL&tsp=1

http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/4602/thatsallfolks.jpg

[nrc]

We're most definitely stepping out of the combat role as of... well maybe tomorrow.

http://apnews.myway.com//article/20110404/D9MCJTOG0.html

[NismoZ]

Yes, Geraldo needs to get more "combat" footage first...running around with his mic wearing a white shirt, no helmet, no vest, gunfire coming from the front AND back. Pretty sure he's figuring out what most of us already believed...these idiots don't know WHAT the hell they are doing, nobody is in charge, firing for the hell of it, playing to the media, no experience, no training...yep, I say get them modern arms REAL fast!:shakehead

[nrc]

Yes, Geraldo needs to get more "combat" footage first...running around with his mic wearing a white shirt, no helmet, no vest, gunfire coming from the front AND back. Pretty sure he's figuring out what most of us already believed...these idiots don't know WHAT the hell they are doing, nobody is in charge, firing for the hell of it, playing to the media, no experience, no training...yep, I say get them modern arms REAL fast!:shakehead

Is that numbskull over there now? Big difference between embedding with professionals and running around with guys who have more zeal than sense or capability.

[dando]

Is that numbskull over there now? Big difference between embedding with professionals and running around with guys who have more zeal than sense or capability.

He's still looking for Capone's stash. :gomer: :shakehead

-Kevin

[Gnam]

The submarine USS Providence returned home to Groton, Connecticut last Friday after a six month deployment that included launching missiles into Lybia.

http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/3453/ussprovidence040811.png

photos: http://www.theday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/gallery?Site=NL&Date=20110408&Category=MEDIA02&ArtNo=408009999&Ref=PH

Article about the Groton's modern combat patrols.
http://www.theday.com/article/20110329/NWS09/303299915/1017

[NismoZ]

Geez, neat house back there. Great views for a Russian spy? (Unless it's a Coast Guard barracks!)

[nrc]

French and British are sending in military advisers now. Purely for humanitarian reasons, of course.

[Ankf00]

have they sorted out the degree to which NATO is supporting this operation? that was a point of contention with Italy and France.

France also announced they're increasing their sortie rate.


french/british/italian operation, french/british/italian soldiers, french/british/italian cash money.


good.

[devilmaster]

The submarine USS Providence returned home to Groton, Connecticut last Friday after a six month deployment that included launching missiles into Libya.[ed. note]fixed for you.[/ed.note]

The return home after a long deployment was always a fun and interesting thing to watch. I lived aboard and had no family in town so I was a part of it, but not really.

Being a Signalman meant I dealt with the incoming message traffic which included the daily message from the family resource centre. Back then, it was sort of like a list of txt messages to various crewmembers. Short, simple messages, maybe 2 lines a piece. We would take the message, photocopy it, and then cut up the individual messages and then I would roam the ship looking for the particular sailors in a msg mail roll call. They could vary from things like 'they accepted our offer on the house' to 'I lost my first tooth, miss you daddy'...

So when that day came when we returned to port, I had a basic knowledge of certain things that happened over the deployment and you'd see the wife waving the new house keys in the air, and if her husband was on the uppers, you'd see the exchange between them when we got close enough.

There were only a few of us who lived onboard, and we would all wait to shower and change, and generally stay out of the way so that the crew with family waiting got done and off the ship. So I just stayed on the flag deck, watching the reunions take place once secure had been piped and leave was allowed. Always fun to watch.

[TravelGal]

Great post DM. Thanks for sharing a meaningful insight into the life of our sailors. The message part may be different now but the reunions aren't.

[Elmo T]

‘Restrepo’ Director Is Killed in Libya (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/21/world/africa/21photographers.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)

Wow - unexpected but not surprised.

I watched Restrepo a few months back. It was exhausting, horrifying, and something everyone should see.

[Gnam]

:(

Maybe they'll rerun Restrepo on the National Geographic channel as a tribute.

[Elmo T]

:(

Maybe they'll rerun Restrepo on the National Geographic channel as a tribute.

National Geographic Channel to air 'Restrepo' (http://content.usatoday.com/communities/entertainment/post/2011/04/national-geographic-channel-to-air-restrepo-/1)

It pretty much flew under the radar last go around. Once I started watching, I felt obligated to make it all the way through - and it wasn't easy.

[KLang]

Armed drones being sent to Libya (http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/21/obama-has-okd-use-of-drones-in-libya-gates-says/?hpt=T2)

Days not weeks he said. :\

[Ankf00]

flightsim jockey is the awesomest job ever.

[NismoZ]

Do those "pilots", in Omaha or wherever, get to scramble to their joysticks, running from their quansets to the sound of loud klaxons while strapping on their survival gear? (carrying a sack lunch, perhaps?) I can hardly wait to see Top Gun II. :D

[NismoZ]

And don't discount the arrival of McCain AND 10 British advisors...THAT should settle things!

[SurfaceUnits]

A plan for winning this war
1) Put Canada in charge
2) No more hockey until Qaddafi is gone

[SurfaceUnits]

Being a Signalman meant I dealt with the incoming message traffic which included the daily message from the family resource centre. Back then, it was sort of like a list of txt messages to various crewmembers. Short, simple messages, maybe 2 lines a piece. We would take the message, photocopy it, and then cut up the individual messages and then I would roam the ship looking for the particular sailors in a msg mail roll call. They could vary from things like \'they accepted our offer on the house\' to \'I lost my first tooth, miss you daddy\'...


dang,,you guys were tweeting before twitter came along

[SurfaceUnits]

I think our Presidents ploy to prove to the world that they cant survive without American intervention just may be working

[Racing Truth]

And so, 6 months later, Tripoli falling tonight. It is done, for good or ill.

[dando]

And so, 6 months later, Tripoli falling tonight. It is done, for good or ill.

Not according to Tripoli Bob. :gomer:

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2011/08/21/vassileva.ibrahim.massacre.cnn?hpt=hp_t1

-Kevin

[Gnam]

Middle East revolution score card:

1. Jun 2009: Iran, secret police crush protests, military backs dictator. Result: dictator still kickin
2. Dec 2010: Tunisia, police attack protesters, military backs protests. Result: dictator flees
3. Jan 2011: Egypt, state thugs attack protesters, military backs protests. Result: dictator in a cage
4. Feb 2011: Bahrain, police attack protesters, Saudi military backs dictator. Result: dictator misses F1 race
5. Feb 2011: Lybia, military attacks protesters, rebels fight back w/ NATO support. Result: Qaddafi done.
6. Mar 2011: Syria, military slaughters protesters, media blackout. Result: ?

Rebels 3, Dics 2 and Syria still to be decided.

It would be interesting if the Arab Spring ends up back in Iran where it started as the Persian Summer.
Death to the Dictator.

[Racing Truth]

Not according to Tripoli Bob. :gomer:

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2011/08/21/vassileva.ibrahim.massacre.cnn?hpt=hp_t1

-Kevin

The correct name is "Tripoli Timmy.";):gomer:

[Gangrel]

Middle East revolution score card:

1. Jun 2009: Iran, secret police crush protests, military backs dictator. Result: dictator still kickin
2. Dec 2010: Tunisia, police attack protesters, military backs protests. Result: dictator flees
3. Jan 2011: Egypt, state thugs attack protesters, military backs protests. Result: dictator in a cage
4. Feb 2011: Bahrain, police attack protesters, Saudi military backs dictator. Result: dictator misses F1 race
5. Feb 2011: Lybia, military attacks protesters, rebels fight back w/ NATO support. Result: Qaddafi done.
6. Mar 2011: Syria, military slaughters protesters, media blackout. Result: ?

Rebels 3, Dics 2 and Syria still to be decided.

It would be interesting if the Arab Spring ends up back in Iran where it started as the Persian Summer.
Death to the Dictator.

Hmmm...how are we scoring Bahrain? I mean, the dictator may not have been removed from power, but he did lose his F-1 race. Shouldn't we call that one a draw? :gomer:

[NismoZ]

Reports of "people" just scooping up and making off with piles of RPGs and other arms and ammo left laying about. That makes it sound like it ain't really over...over there. Can we count the days, divide by seven and come up with our score? Wonder when we are going to get involved in the spontaneous popular uprisings in NFL stadiums, ballparks and our city streets?

[nrc]

I'm just glad the civilians are safe.

[Racing Truth]

While I stand by saying the Mad Colonel is finished, we're clearly in the "fog of war" stage. The rebel TNC had said Saif al-Islam Gaddafi was arrested. Nope, he's in Tripoli now, saying it was a trick, etc. So, still perhaps a chapter or so left.


Middle East revolution score card:

1. Jun 2009: Iran, secret police crush protests, military backs dictator. Result: dictator still kickin
2. Dec 2010: Tunisia, police attack protesters, military backs protests. Result: dictator flees
3. Jan 2011: Egypt, state thugs attack protesters, military backs protests. Result: dictator in a cage
4. Feb 2011: Bahrain, police attack protesters, Saudi military backs dictator. Result: dictator misses F1 race
5. Feb 2011: Lybia, military attacks protesters, rebels fight back w/ NATO support. Result: Qaddafi done.
6. Mar 2011: Syria, military slaughters protesters, media blackout. Result: ?

Rebels 3, Dics 2 and Syria still to be decided.

It would be interesting if the Arab Spring ends up back in Iran where it started as the Persian Summer.
Death to the Dictator.

In all of the dictator "holds on," I'd say "for now." In Syria, Assad's going full-on massacre right now. But the protests keep coming (http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2011/8/22/syria-and-beyond-liveblog-meanwhile-in-another-uprising.html) (WARNING: Some extremely graphic video included.). Can Bashar kill enough people to hang on? I'm not sure I'd take that bet.

But the Islamic Republic will be the toughest nut to crack. It is run by the truest of true believers, believing they are doing Allah's will (they're not, but nevermind). That fundamentalism is hard to overcome. BUT the populous is enlightened. If that nut is cracked, there's your gamechanger.

[Gnam]

All the other revolutions have taught Assad one thing: crush your enemies before they fight back.

The west will not invade, like the US did in Iraq, unless the people are already fighting back. Without the west the rebels cannot win. Without victory the slaughter will continue.

Also, unlike the other revolutions the military seems completely hostile to the protesters. My limited understanding of Syria is the that the military will stick to Assad like glue because they come from the same minority that has been repressing the country for decades. They would all be strung up by the people if Assad loses power.

Finally, Syria is Iran's only friend in the area. If Assad falls, then Iran would be alone and surrounded by enemies with a pissed off population wondering when it's their turn. I fear Syria turning into a proxy fight. Iran backing Assad to the death, and the west/NATO backing the protesters.

[dando]

Ain't over yet, folks (but just a matter of time, IMO). As Yogi once said, it ain't over 'til it's over.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/world-leaders-call-on-gaddafi-to-surrender-libyan-rebels-secure-most-of-tripoli/2011/08/22/gIQAN4wyVJ_print.html

-Kevin

[stroker]

If Assad falls, then Iran would be alone and surrounded by enemies with a pissed off population wondering when it's their turn. I fear Syria turning into a proxy fight. Iran backing Assad to the death, and the west/NATO backing the protesters.

This would explain Hamas & Co. recently tossing rockets at Israel as a distraction and a potential threat from Iran. I think Bibi will tolerate a few more in exchange for Assad ending up like Il Duce.

[NismoZ]

News From The Front...Qaddafi's kid says Dad is alive and well in Tripoli and will CRUSH the rebels!:gomer:

[NismoZ]

Hmmm, rebels enter Qaddafi compound and home. Could be a Hitler Bunker moment. Maybe we'll have "film at five" this time.

[Racing Truth]

All the other revolutions have taught Assad one thing: crush your enemies before they fight back.

The west will not invade, like the US did in Iraq, unless the people are already fighting back. Without the west the rebels cannot win. Without victory the slaughter will continue.

Also, unlike the other revolutions the military seems completely hostile to the protesters. My limited understanding of Syria is the that the military will stick to Assad like glue because they come from the same minority that has been repressing the country for decades. They would all be strung up by the people if Assad loses power.

Finally, Syria is Iran's only friend in the area. If Assad falls, then Iran would be alone and surrounded by enemies with a pissed off population wondering when it's their turn. I fear Syria turning into a proxy fight. Iran backing Assad to the death, and the west/NATO backing the protesters.

The original coup/revolution that led to ascension of Hafez Assad was based in the Syrian military. After further internal coups, it was Assad, an air force man himself, who took total control. So, much like Egypt, this totally a military-installed regime. Unlike (apparently) Egypt, the military is absolutely loyal (for now; how long can you massacre folks in Homs, Damascus, etc.?) to the head of the regime, Bashar (despite not being a military man).

At this point, western military intervention, even if practicable ($-wise, it's not; Libya stretched France and UK to the limit), would be madness. You have no large-scale military defections, there's some latent anti-Western sentiment (though not as much as Bashar thinks) and the Syrian military ain't the Libyan military.

Still, can't help but think Bashar played his long-term cards very badly. He's now stuck in a position of being reliant on the Islamic Republic, a theocracy, despite being a purportedly Western-educated guy. Sure, Iran will back to the hilt for now, but what happens when his secularism displeases the Qom hardliners? Really bad spot, I'd say.

For those interested in following the ME during these times, I'd recommend two places. Enduring America (http://www.enduringamerica.com/) first made it's mark during the '09 Iranian elections, protests and the ensuing aftermath. Prior to that, it was frankly a place of mostly leftist analysis of US foreign policy (and I say that as someone with liberal leanings myself). Since then, though, I think Prof. Lucas has gently evolved in some of his understandings and at any rate, EA's daily coverage of the Arab/Persian Spring is the best there is.

My other recommendation is the Twitter feed of Sultan Al-Qassemi. (http://twitter.com/#!/sultanalqassemi) Yes, his first name is Sultan, it's not a title. Al-Qassemi monitors int'l media, but most of all, Arab media, reporting on it in his Twitter feed (with commentary thrown in too).

[Gnam]

At this point, western military intervention, even if practicable ($-wise, it's not; Libya stretched France and UK to the limit), would be madness.

I agree, but a couple of youtube videos or camera crews beaming back images of civilian slaughter with pleas for help and it will be Benghazi all over again. American administrations don't mind letting civilians die. They just don't like having to watch in on tv.

[NismoZ]

Reuters reporting rebels say they have The Big Guy surrounded in an apartment building in Tripoli? Go in and get him...or just blow the s*** out of it?

[dando]

Reuters reporting rebels say they have The Big Guy surrounded in an apartment building in Tripoli? Go in and get him...or just blow the s*** out of it?

El Duce style.

-Kevin

[Gnam]

Qaddafi seen in Zimbabwe? How did that happen?

Is this a:
a) false report?
b) NATO negotiated deal?
c) Qaddafi running away to live to fight another day?

[cameraman]

His closest military protection has always been made up of African mercenaries, it isn't a surprise that he might be out of the country.

[Racing Truth]

Apparently, Algeria's taken in Mrs. Gaddafi and three of his kids. Seems like a poor decision on Algeria's part. To review: Tunisia- revolutuon; Libya- overthrow; Algeria- right next to them. I'd get "on-side" quick if I were them.

Starting to read rumors of a few military defections in Syria. Turkey's also, apparently, done w/ Bashar too. Interesting times.

[racer2c]

Egypt - a modern day garden of eden. Ain't revolution grand? :shakehead

[stroker]

Wasn't this supposed to last weeks, not months?

[Napoleon]

Reuters has an unconfirmed report that he has been captured.

[dando]

Reuters has an unconfirmed report that he has been captured.

Actually unconfirmed reports are that he is dead.

-Kevin

[Napoleon]

Actually unconfirmed reports are that he is dead.

-Kevin

Originally they said captured and reportedly the Guardian's website has a cell phone pic of it (for some reason I have been having trouble for a couple of weeks being able to access that site) but now the NY Times is saying the head of Tripoli's military council says he is dead.

[dando]

Originally they said captured and reportedly the Guardian's website has a cell phone pic of it (for some reason I have been having trouble for a couple of weeks being able to access that site) but now the NY Times is saying the head of Tripoli's military council says he is dead.

They just showed the pic on the Today Show, and he appeared to be dead. Apparently a NATO airstrike hit the convoy he was in fleeing Sirte.

-Kevin

[NismoZ]

Ah, the "King Of Kings" finally gets his wish. Bullet in the head or NATO airstrike, maybe both? Wonder where those thousands of shoulder launch AA missiles have gone!?:irked:

[dando]

Other reports are that he was found holed up ala Hussein. Fog of war....

-Kevin

[racer2c]

They just showed the pic on the Today Show, and he appeared to be dead. Apparently a NATO airstrike hit the convoy he was in fleeing Sirte.

-Kevin

He's looked dead in every picture I've ever seen of him. :D

[dando]

He's looked dead in every picture I've ever seen of him. :D

Well, in this one he's either dead or wearing a lot of red makeup. I'm guessing the dude is toast. :thumbup:

-Kevin

[Napoleon]

Gaddafi killed; Mauled by tiger in Ohio (http://www.borowitzreport.com/2011/10/20/gaddafi-killed-mauled-by-tiger-in-ohio/)

[Don Quixote]

Gaddafi killed; Mauled by tiger in Ohio (http://www.borowitzreport.com/2011/10/20/gaddafi-killed-mauled-by-tiger-in-ohio/):rofl: :rofl: