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Insomniac
10-07-08, 11:40 AM
Well it appears that Paulson got the blank check he was wanting:
Nobody in DC is going to question any decision he makes on how he spends the tax dollars
I don't think this has anything to do with the bailout package.
SurfaceUnits
10-07-08, 11:43 AM
I don't think this has anything to do with the bailout package.
that's what I'm saying, but nobody is going to stand up and question the decisions
"The Treasury believes this facility is necessary to prevent substantial disruptions to the financial markets and the economy and will make a special deposit at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in support of this facility," said the Fed's statement.
The new program comes as the Treasury Department scrambles to put in place a $700 billion bailout of the financial system enacted on Friday. Under that program, the Treasury is expected to purchase troubled assets from banks and financial institutions in an effort to spur more lending.
where did the Treasury get the funds to do this?
I don't think this has anything to do with the bailout package.
Correct. This is an attempt to free up the commercial paper market (aka: company credit cards).
Piss & moan about it folks, but to do nothing means a depression. Period. It still might, but @ least they are trying to save the Titanic. However, the pork in the bailout.... :saywhat: :mad:
-Kevin
oddlycalm
10-07-08, 12:12 PM
Well it appears that Paulson got the blank check he was wanting:
Nobody in DC is going to question any decision he makes on how he spends the tax dollars
And your alternative plan for preventing the seized up short term debt market from bringing the country to a grinding halt? Nobody is happy with situation, but you seem to want to bite your nose to spite your face. Unless you have a desire for a long unpaid vacation with millions of others to keep you company you should be hoping this works.
On another note, the FBI has opened investigations into Lehman Bros and other firms to discover who knew what when. The big dogs were assuring everyone that things were great right up until they smacked the wall. Under Sorbanes-Oxley the CEO and CFO sign and certify the quarterly financials and if they are fraudulent the jail terms are long.
oc
Insomniac
10-07-08, 12:25 PM
that's what I'm saying, but nobody is going to stand up and question the decisions
where did the Treasury get the funds to do this?
The treasury had something like $800B a couple weeks ago.
Found it:
Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who leads the House Financial Services Committee, asked Mr. Bernanke if the Fed had $85 billion to spare. “We have $800 billion,” Mr. Bernanke replied, according to Mr. Frank.
From a good series of articles in the NYT: http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/series/the_reckoning/index.html
Cramer advises to pull out of market all money you will need for the next five years
Anyone who doesn't already have money that they're going to need in five years out of the market is probably going to have to change their plans.
So what does this really mean. Seriously.
I suck at investing.
So am I supposed to sell my (few) stocks at a loss?
Push all of my 401k into bonds?
Buy gold?
Stuff mattresses?
What are all of you doing right now with your funds?
I'd get an advisor, but I think he's really with the IRS...
Insomniac
10-07-08, 01:38 PM
So what does this really mean. Seriously.
I suck at investing.
So am I supposed to sell my (few) stocks at a loss?
Push all of my 401k into bonds?
Buy gold?
Stuff mattresses?
What are all of you doing right now with your funds?
I'd get an advisor, but I think he's really with the IRS...
I took it to mean that he expects the next 5 years to be very volatile. So if you plan on needing money that is currently invested (say for retirement or a down payment on something) in the next few years, you should remove it from stock market.
(Note that for long term value investors (buy low, sell high) many would tell you this is a good time to get in, which is why Cramer said if you can ride it out for 5 years, don't bail.)
SurfaceUnits
10-07-08, 01:50 PM
So what does this really mean. Seriously.
I suck at investing.
So am I supposed to sell my (few) stocks at a loss?
Push all of my 401k into bonds?
Buy gold?
Stuff mattresses?
What are all of you doing right now with your funds?
I'd get an advisor, but I think he's really with the IRS...
Outlook gloomy
Fed chairman Bernanke says financial crisis will keep economy weak into next year and hints at future rate cuts.
It means the outlook for stocks for the near future is trending down. But with this financial mess, not even bonds are doing better than breaking even, but that's better than tanking. normally, when stocks are down, bonds are up.
TIAA-CREF perfromance chart:
http://indybooks.net/images/tiaa.jpg
[
SurfaceUnits
10-07-08, 02:06 PM
And your alternative plan for preventing the seized up short term debt market from bringing the country to a grinding halt? Nobody is happy with situation, but you seem to want to bite your nose to spite your face. Unless you have a desire for a long unpaid vacation with millions of others to keep you company you should be hoping this works.
oc
how many average Janes going thru foreclosure did it take for Washington and Wall St. to discover that average Janes going thru foreclosure is a problem?
Like someone wrote last week, all Paulson knows is wall st. everything he sees is thru the eyes of Wall St. he entertained no other options except saving Wall st.
I'm feeling pretty smart because I sold 15% of my portfolio in August. I'm going to put it put the cash back into stocks. Now is a bad time to sell. I have no idea, nor does anyone else really, what's going to happen in the next year or so, but it is a good time to invest for any money you need for retirement and probably any time frame longer than two years. As always, make sure you diversify. The older you are, the more money you should have in bonds.
Like someone wrote last week, all Paulson knows is wall st. everything he sees is thru the eyes of Wall St. he entertained no other options except saving Wall st.
BS. This is about saving MAIN street. Period. Banks fail, people fail, not just investors or investment bankers. :irked:
-Kevin
I'm feeling pretty smart because I sold 15% of my portfolio in August. I'm going to put it put the cash back into stocks. Now is a bad time to sell. I have no idea, nor does anyone else really, what's going to happen in the next year or so, but it is a good time to invest for any money you need for retirement and probably any time frame longer than two years. As always, make sure you diversify. The older you are, the more money you should have in bonds.
Dude, last year I cashed in the last of my NQSOs...today the stock is 1/2 the value from when I cashed in. :eek: Of course, it was 5x that before I was fully vested. :irked: Sucks to be a GOOGer right now.
-Kevin
Methanolandbrats
10-07-08, 02:52 PM
BS. This is about saving MAIN street. Period. Banks fail, people fail, not just investors or investment bankers. :irked:
-Kevin The only reason Paulson "cares" about main street is because his buddies need all the serfs to continue sending in their payments.
It's amazing how things have not changed since the Middle Ages. Now we just pay interest to the manor instead of showing up with some potatos or something.
http://library.thinkquest.org/10949/fief/lofeudal.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/112984
Insomniac
10-07-08, 03:19 PM
BS. This is about saving MAIN street. Period. Banks fail, people fail, not just investors or investment bankers. :irked:
-Kevin
I'd say it was about easing the impact on the majority. Short term, if the banks fail, we're all thrown into a bad recession as it all gets sorted out and new banks are formed. Long term, the financial system is re-built, hopefully with some lessons learned. I haven't heard of any solution that potentially minimizes a recession while giving the $700B directly to the people.
SurfaceUnits
10-07-08, 03:19 PM
BS. This is about saving MAIN street. Period. Banks fail, people fail, not just investors or investment bankers. :irked:
-Kevin
BS. Paulson didn't give a rats ass until his Wall St. buddies started feeling the pinch.
Insomniac
10-07-08, 03:28 PM
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/112984
Related to his first point, I think DC would be physically unable to maintain an annual surplus, let alone wipe out the debt and start saving. No matter who is there, the temptation, even if they set a real long term goal to be debt free, would be either cut taxes so no reserves could be built up or find a way to spend it. The entire culture is "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.". Ironically, that is from a cartoon during the great depression.
Sean Malone
10-07-08, 03:36 PM
The Great Depression -> WWII
The New Millennium Depression -> WWIII
SurfaceUnits
10-07-08, 03:39 PM
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/112984
good find
The Great Depression -> WWII
The New Millennium Depression -> WWIII
probably with this guy:
http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20081007/capt.26576208381d49548e0897981bb02df2.russia_putin _judo_lon115.jpg?x=147&y=345&q=85&sig=2nBB4lfbLFS9D0tTAytJ3g--
SurfaceUnits
10-07-08, 04:11 PM
I'd say it was about easing the impact on the majority. Short term, if the banks fail, we're all thrown into a bad recession as it all gets sorted out and new banks are formed. Long term, the financial system is re-built, hopefully with some lessons learned. I haven't heard of any solution that potentially minimizes a recession while giving the $700B directly to the people.
The fact that no one on the east coast cared that thousands of families elsewhere were loosing their homes is one cause of this financial crisis
DOW closes 33% off 52 week high
Sean Malone
10-07-08, 04:42 PM
In the past week I have learned of two of my friends from VA have lost their homes and both have moved into with their parents. Both had teenagers, decent jobs, Harley Davidson's, new cars, four bedroom, 2 car garage cul de sac homes. All gone (except the teenagers of course). It shocked me and left me feeling very strange.
SurfaceUnits
10-07-08, 05:22 PM
In the past week I have learned of two of my friends from VA have lost their homes and both have moved into with their parents. Both had teenagers, decent jobs, Harley Davidson's, new cars, four bedroom, 2 car garage cul de sac homes. All gone (except the teenagers of course). It shocked me and left me feeling very strange.
One of the guys that appeared before congress this week has 3 homes with a combined value of over 42 million.
cameraman
10-07-08, 06:24 PM
In the past week I have learned of two of my friends from VA have lost their homes and both have moved into with their parents. Both had teenagers, decent jobs, Harley Davidson's, new cars, four bedroom, 2 car garage cul de sac homes. All gone (except the teenagers of course). It shocked me and left me feeling very strange.
They lose their jobs or just buy things on credit far beyond their ability to pay it off.
cameraman
10-07-08, 06:25 PM
One of the guys that appeared before congress this week has 3 homes with a combined value of over 42 million.
So what?
SurfaceUnits
10-07-08, 08:25 PM
So what?
taxpayers are paying for his deeds. taxpayers' children will pay for his deeds. taxpayers' grandchildren will pay for his deeds. what are you getting from taxpayers in your McMansion?
David M. Walker served as comptroller general of the United States and head of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) from 1998 to 2008. He is now president and CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.
David Walker says the $700 billion bailout is a pittance compared with the debt facing the United States.
Methanolandbrats
10-07-08, 08:41 PM
taxpayers are paying for his deeds. taxpayers' children will pay for his deeds. taxpayers' grandchildren will pay for his deeds. what are you getting from taxpayers in your McMansion?
David M. Walker served as comptroller general of the United States and head of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) from 1998 to 2008. He is now president and CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.
David Walker says the $700 billion bailout is a pittance compared with the debt facing the United States.
Exactly. The current crop of hard working people who lived within their means will pay off other peoples debts for the rest of their lives. Future generations will pay and struggle to have a life. I have two teenage daughters and they will face major hardship. I have lived in the same modest house for 20 years and I drive a ten year old car. Gotta go now, I have to get back to work so I can cut a check to keep Paulson's buddies employed and pay for Joe Peckerwood's Government funded refi on his Mc Mansion.:mad: Sockcuckers.
David M. Walker served as comptroller general of the United States and head of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) from 1998 to 2008. He is now president and CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.
David Walker says the $700 billion bailout is a pittance compared with the debt facing the United States.
Doesn't take a genius to figger that one out, Sherlock. :shakehead
-Kevin
Sean Malone
10-07-08, 10:21 PM
They lose their jobs or just buy things on credit far beyond their ability to pay it off.
Both were a case of being over extended and living well beyond their means and it caught up to them. Cadillac SUVs, flat screen HDTV's, 2 week vacations to the Caribbean...when you only make a household income of ~100K and live like you make three times that it won't last long and I know many who live that way.
But, as I was discussing with my wife tonight, my wife believes that most of these people, including my friends, made a conscious decision at some point that they want (or wanted) to have the lifestyle of someone who makes $350K a year. I disagree. I believe it is simply a matter of a social perception that once you have a decent job, a couple of kids, pushing 40 that you need to start to show that you can have as many toys as your neighbor. The credit came easy...hell make your minimum payments and the applications for new cards arrive daily in the mailbox. New set of golf clubs? Not a prob, put em on the VISA. Never once did I ever hear a buddy admit his lifestyle was purposely fashioned in order to compete with Joe next door, but sub consciously I believe that he and his wife know that if they don't maintain a certain perception of 'successfulness', the'll lose their friends, their kids friends parents won't let their kids play with them etc. there is a cul de sac mentality that help perpetuate an over extended lifestyle.
It doesn't sound like you disagree with your wife.
Sean Malone
10-07-08, 10:29 PM
It doesn't sound like you disagree with your wife.
Conscious decisions (her) vs subconscious decisions (me)...blah, Irrelevant amateur psycho-babble. It's a hobby of mine. ;)
cameraman
10-08-08, 12:23 AM
There is quite a bit of hate focused on the corporate types running these major firms but they are hardly alone in creating this mess. Their little bundles of mortgages wouldn't be worthless if average joe consumer wasn't up to his eyeballs in debt and defaulting on that whole pile of debt. The various lenders are to blame for their idiotic approval practices but it is the consumer that is to blame for defaulting.
I was offered a truly insane mortgage when I was buying my house. They approved me for a McMansion worth of money at a truly suicidal variable rate. I did not take it. I have a nice, fixed interest, low rate, 30 year loan for one third of what I was approved for.
The real culprit in this entire mess is the very large percentage of the US population that insist on living well beyond their means and have willfully gotten themselves hopelessly mired in debt.
Methanolandbrats
10-08-08, 08:13 AM
There is quite a bit of hate focused on the corporate types running these major firms but they are hardly alone in creating this mess. Their little bundles of mortgages wouldn't be worthless if average joe consumer wasn't up to his eyeballs in debt and defaulting on that whole pile of debt. The various lenders are to blame for their idiotic approval practices but it is the consumer that is to blame for defaulting.
I was offered a truly insane mortgage when I was buying my house. They approved me for a McMansion worth of money at a truly suicidal variable rate. I did not take it. I have a nice, fixed interest, low rate, 30 year loan for one third of what I was approved for.
The real culprit in this entire mess is the very large percentage of the US population that insist on living well beyond their means and have willfully gotten themselves hopelessly mired in debt. A lot of people don't make good decisions, that's what the loan officer is for. Loan officers did'nt do their jobs because the more mortgages they wrote, the more they made. There was no incentive to do their job because there was no risk. I blame it more on the regulatory environment letting lenders and then investment banks run buck wild.
Sean Malone
10-08-08, 09:25 AM
The real culprit in this entire mess is the very large percentage of the US population that insist on living well beyond their means and have willfully gotten themselves hopelessly mired in debt.
And are hanging on by a string i.e. paycheck to paycheck. When the mass layoffs start happening throughout the next year due to the tightened economy, watch out, it's going to be ugly. I suppose that is why some say it will get worse before it gets better.
Methanolandbrats
10-08-08, 09:29 AM
And are hanging on by a string i.e. paycheck to paycheck. When the mass layoffs start happening throughout the next year due to the tightened economy, watch out, it's going to be ugly. I suppose that is why some say it will get worse before it gets better.Yup, consumer spending will tank, retail sales will tank, corporate earnings will tank, fair value will go lower.
Despite the 'global' rate cut, today might be the ugliest day of our lives. :(
Ring the bell....
-Kevin
Insomniac
10-08-08, 09:54 AM
Well, both candidates now want to not only change the terms of the loan, they want to change the principle. For all the people who can pay their loans, or paid off their mortgage, nothing. Your house value dropped, oh well. Thanks for being responsible, it didn't help.
The real culprit in this entire mess is the very large percentage of the US population that insist on living well beyond their means and have willfully gotten themselves hopelessly mired in debt.
What about the US Federal Government?
Who has debt of over 10,000,000,000,000.
While running a defecit of 410,000,000,000 this year.
And will have countless future debt racked up with promised entitlements like Social Security and Medicare.
Thats the equivilent of someone who makes $100,000 a year, spending $113,600 a year and paying 0 money on their $330,000 mortgage.
What about the president saying "go shopping" after 9/11?
Like I said. Everybody is in the same boat. It ain't somebody else's problem. It's a little piece of Americana.
What about the president saying "go shopping" after 9/11?
Like I said. Everybody is in the same boat. It ain't somebody else's problem. It's a little piece of Americana.
somebody watched the debate last night.
Sean Malone
10-08-08, 10:53 AM
What about the president saying "go shopping" after 9/11?
Like I said. Everybody is in the same boat. It ain't somebody else's problem. It's a little piece of Americana.
What about it? 9/11 shook America to the brink of impulsion. Thanks in part to American consumer spending the economy didn't collapse which was the actual purpose of the attack! The "go shopping" barb is trivializing an important part of why America pulled through the tragedy.
What about it? 9/11 shook America to the brink of impulsion. Thanks in part to American consumer spending the economy didn't collapse which was the actual purpose of the attack! The "go shopping" barb is trivializing an important part of why America pulled through the tragedy.
keep shopping after 9/11? :thumbup:
spend yourself into massive debt because you think you're bulletproof? :thumdown:
Sean Malone
10-08-08, 11:16 AM
keep shopping after 9/11? :thumbup:
spend yourself into massive debt because you think you're bulletproof? :thumdown:
true.
SurfaceUnits
10-08-08, 11:35 AM
The real culprit in this entire mess is the very large percentage of the US population that insist on living well beyond their means and have willfully gotten themselves hopelessly mired in debt.Looks like Madison Avenue earned their fees
Insomniac
10-08-08, 02:04 PM
Looks like Madison Avenue earned their fees
I'd give the credit to credit card companies (no pun intended). There has been advertising for a lot longer than financing for small purchases. You went from layaway (pay first in installments) to credit. The desire to buy hasn't likely changed, but the ease in which you can spend has.
Insomniac
10-08-08, 02:05 PM
somebody watched the debate last night.
That wasn't the first time I heard that.
Insomniac
10-08-08, 02:08 PM
What about the US Federal Government?
Who has debt of over 10,000,000,000,000.
While running a defecit of 410,000,000,000 this year.
And will have countless future debt racked up with promised entitlements like Social Security and Medicare.
Thats the equivilent of someone who makes $100,000 a year, spending $113,600 a year and paying 0 money on their $330,000 mortgage.
But again, the culprit is still the US population. We elect people who refuse to either raise taxes to pay for the stuff they want (and pay down debt) or cut spending (and pay down debt) or any combination in between.
That wasn't the first time I heard that.
the first time you should have heard it was september 20th, when he actually said it. but what he actually said was:
Americans are asking: What is expected of us? .......
I ask your continued participation and confidence in the American economy. Terrorists attacked a symbol of American prosperity. They did not touch its source. America is successful because of the hard work, and creativity, and enterprise of our people. These were the true strengths of our economy before September 11th, and they are our strengths today. (Applause.)
That's not, "go out and shop" which is how I knew you watched the debate. ;)
Insomniac
10-08-08, 04:49 PM
the first time you should have heard it was september 20th, when he actually said it. but what he actually said was:
That's not, "go out and shop" which is how I knew you watched the debate. ;)
I wasn't the person who said it. I was just implying that line has been used in previous debates and speeches, so FTG repeating it does not mean it came from last night's debate (a.k.a. a demonstration of how Washington works).
oddlycalm
10-08-08, 05:00 PM
So what does this really mean. Seriously.
I suck at investing.
So am I supposed to sell my (few) stocks at a loss?
Push all of my 401k into bonds?
Buy gold?
Stuff mattresses?
What are all of you doing right now with your funds?
I'd get an advisor, but I think he's really with the IRS...
Safest parking spots are treasury bonds or funds based on treasury bonds. Actual gold is physically tuff to deal with in any kind quantity. Some gold index funds would be better. Gold has it's ups and downs as well and if industrial demand for gold tanks gold may tank with it.
Edit: An alternative to buying actual gold or commodity contracts is to buy Gold Miners ETF (GDX). An ETF is an exchange traded fund that trades on the stock market.
The stock market hit it's most recent peak at the end of 2007 and the sell signals came in January. Getting out at the bottom is the obvious concern.
Historically, the worst month for the market is October. According to the Stock Traders Almanac (which is the authority on seasonal trends), October crashes took place during 1929 and 1987. October downturns also took place in 1978, 1979, 1989, and 1997. October, however, is also known as a "bear killer". Bear markets ended during October in 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, and 2002.
Fear and capitulation are what it takes to form a bottom and we have plenty of both right now. That makes at least a medium term bottom during October likely. There is a reasonable possibility we will see a medium term bounce between November and January. No guarantees because of the unusual circumstances, but I'd rather sell into a medium term rally than to get out at the bottom. The long term trend may (or may not) stay negative, but there are always reaction rallies along the way and November - January is our best chance to get one. We aren't there yet though.
As far as investing, I don't worry about short term trends or trying to catch the absolute top or bottom. I use the monthly index charts to catch to long term swings. Charting services like Big Charts are free. You'll beat barking idiots like Cramer and you won't have to spend a lot of time thinking about it.
oc
dollars, stocks, economies, oil, islamofascists, all you schmucks have it 100% wrong
http://www.snorgtees.com/images/Bears_Fullpic_1.jpg
Sean Malone
10-08-08, 08:43 PM
the Chicago Bears? Why would a football team want to hurt us? :cry: Why!!!!
the Chicago Bears? Why would a football team want to hurt us? :cry: Why!!!!
UCLA, yo. ;) :(
-Kevin
Gov just loaned AIG another 40 billion.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/08/news/companies/aig/index.htm?cnn=yes
What about it? 9/11 shook America to the brink of impulsion. Thanks in part to American consumer spending the economy didn't collapse which was the actual purpose of the attack! The "go shopping" barb is trivializing an important part of why America pulled through the tragedy.
Can't really complain about people shopping for houses then, can you? Which was my point.
That's not, "go out and shop" which is how I knew you watched the debate. ;)
Nope. I was out all night, but thanks for bringing up the fact that we caused far more economic damage to ourselves than Bin Laden could ever dream of. (I wasn't going to bring it up, because I thought it might be a little too much reality for some people to handle.) Anyway, his approval rating was about 80% or something back then. You can't say the country has been clamoring for personal responsibility, personal restraint and balanced budgets.
cameraman
10-08-08, 11:22 PM
If you want a pretty lucid explanation of how all of these financial bits work (or were supposed to work as it were) last weeks This American Life had a very good description of how these things work. I'm not an Ira Glass fan but this was good.
A one hour, 27.7 MB mp3 file (http://podcast.thisamericanlife.org/podcast/365.mp3)
Insomniac
10-09-08, 09:08 AM
Gov just loaned AIG another 40 billion.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/08/news/companies/aig/index.htm?cnn=yes
Well, that's what happens when you own 80% of the company.
SurfaceUnits
10-09-08, 03:08 PM
8,955.84 some are saying/hoping 8400 will be the low, some are saying 7200
SurfaceUnits
10-09-08, 03:16 PM
Illinois sheriff halts evictions
CHICAGO, Illinois (CNN) -- An outraged sheriff in Illinois who refuses to evict "innocent" renters from foreclosed homes criticized mortgage companies Thursday and said the law should protect victims of the mortgage meltdown.
Sheriff Thomas J. Dart said earlier he is suspending foreclosure evictions in Cook County, which includes the city of Chicago.
The county had been on track to reach a record number of evictions, many because of mortgage foreclosures.
Many good tenants are suffering because building owners have fallen behind on their mortgage payments, he said Thursday on CNN's "American Morning."
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/08/chicago.evictions/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
Sean Malone
10-09-08, 03:19 PM
Precursor to tent cities?
SurfaceUnits
10-09-08, 03:43 PM
DOW -520.81 -5.63%
8,737.29
pulling it below 9,000. GM shares plunge 22% as economy worries crater auto sales outlook. More soon.
Low (day): 8,595.04
oddlycalm
10-09-08, 04:05 PM
8,955.84 some are saying/hoping 8400 will be the low, some are saying 7200
There is a small bit of suport at 8400, but not much. The way it works is that areas of previous resistance during the upside become support on the downside. Next major support is at 7200 where the 2002-2003 bottom was. :(
I've neven seen a 100% retracement of a bull market that lasted.
Normally we would look for a bottom in October but there is currently not a single indication that will happen. The market is still picking up velocity on the downside. The Gold Stock Index is up 18% today. This is a classic market panic and hysteria has taken a firm hold for now.
oc
Insomniac
10-09-08, 04:14 PM
There is a small bit of suport at 8400, but not much. The way it works is that areas of previous resistance during the upside become support on the downside. Next major support is at 7200 where the 2002-2003 bottom was. :(
I've neven seen a 100% retracement of a bull market that lasted.
Normally we would look for a bottom in October but there is currently not a single indication that will happen. The market is still picking up velocity on the downside. The Gold Stock Index is up 18% today. This is a classic market panic and hysteria has taken a firm hold for now.
oc
Can probably throw all the conventional technical analysis out the window at this point.
oddlycalm
10-09-08, 05:19 PM
Illinois sheriff halts evictions Yeah, putting people out in the street right now isn't going to do anyone any good. Common sense needs to prevail.
oc
Methanolandbrats
10-09-08, 05:22 PM
Went beyond a 33% correction, 50% would be 7000. That's how it's looking.
One-year anniversary of the all-time high last October. Down 38% YTD since. :cry:
-Kevin
Now we need a bigger debt clock:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/odd_national_debt_clock;_ylt=AvuG5JqrBLm9v4c0ui1lL BADW7oF
As a short-term fix, the digital dollar sign on the billboard-style clock near Times Square has been switched to a figure — the "1" in $10 trillion. It's marking the federal government's current debt at about $10.2 trillion.
:saywhat: :shakehead
-Kevin
I found this at another forum I visit.
http://www.politicalgateway.com/news/read/173345
I guess we'll see how his latest predictions pan out.
The ones below are from a few months back.
http://http://www.politicalgateway.com/news/read/140497
Sean Malone
10-09-08, 09:05 PM
I found this at another forum I visit.
http://http://www.politicalgateway.com/news/read/173345%22]www.politicalgateway.com/news/read/173345
I guess we'll see how his latest predictions pan out.
The ones below are from a few months back.
http://http://www.politicalgateway.com/news/read/140497
Your links are pretty hosed.
Try this...Linkypoo You have to type the poo part or it doesn't work (http://www.politicalgateway.com/news/read/173345)
Thank you Sean! I'm usually pretty good with linking but today, not so much.
If you have 3 1/2 hours to spare, you can watch this.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936
you guys remember the days when the pessimists were saying the market would bottom out as low as 8300?
i miss those days.
dow down to 8200ish thus far.
Bottom has got to be coming soon. I'm just waiting to put some money back in. Today? Wait? I must admit; very stressful.
Bottom has got to be coming soon. I'm just waiting to put some money back in. Today? Wait? I must admit; very stressful.
i dont see any reason to believe this is the bottom.
i mean, jim cramer was called crazy for saying we'd be at 8300 sometime within the next year, and it happened only 5 days later.
It's bounced back from a low of sub 8,000 and stayed there for a while. That's where it was after 9/11. In spite of all the crap going on there's got to be some compainies worth more than they were seven years ago.
The big question now what?
Michaelhatesfans
10-10-08, 02:30 PM
In spite of all the crap going on there's got to be some compainies worth more than they were seven years ago.
Repo companies, scrap metal merchants, and Night Train.:thumbup:
I just put money back in. Now I ain't going to look until next year.
Bottom has got to be coming soon. I'm just waiting to put some money back in. Today? Wait? I must admit; very stressful.
Yeah, this is tricky. I have some $$$ on the side as well, but I'm afraid as all heck to jump in yet. I'm thinking it won't be safe until after the G7 metets this weekend. We're in full panic mode here. Below 8K twice today, erasing the first loss before heading back down again. Insane. :shakehead :irked:
Berlusconi floats idea to close the markets while the rules are rewritten:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aP5mpMUORBWM
No way, Jose.
EDIT: back over 8500 again briefly before heading back down triple digits. Jeebus this is nutz.
EDIT2: and now into positive territory.
-Kevin
oddlycalm
10-10-08, 03:28 PM
It's bounced back from a low of sub 8,000 and stayed there for a while. That's where it was after 9/11. In spite of all the crap going on there's got to be some compainies worth more than they were seven years ago.
The big question now what?
Relax, there will be plenty of buying opportunities once we have put in a long term bottom. It'll take a month or two minimum to confirm the bottom, not a momentary pause in the action. As I posted on the previous page, there is a good possibility we will see a medium term reaction rally between the end of October to January, but the long term direction may remain negative. The next strong support is at Dow 7200. We really don't want the market to break below that. There is a difference between disaster and cataclysm.
Stocks are only worth what a buyer will pay at a given moment whether it is 7yrs or 7 minutes from a previous market low. Business fundamentals (gossip) have little to do with price. I learned that the hard way shorting stocks of companies that were, for all practical purposes, bankrupt but that continued to be popular with investors because of brand name and support from analysts :saywhat: That was when I learned that analysts and rating agencies are crooked, clueless or both. The evidence of that has continued to mount (Enron, MCI) and now we have the world championship performance; default on AAA rated bonds. :tony:
One aspect to this crisis that has gotten little attention is that when the rating agencies were revealed to have no earthly clue regarding the value of the debt they were rating all transparency was lost. Until debt ratings can be trusted I don't see debt markets functioning all that well.
oc
i mean, jim cramer was called crazy for saying we'd be at 8300 sometime within the next year, and it happened only 5 days later.
Cramer is called crazy for lots of reasons besides that. I swear in his former life he carried the John 3:16 sign to sports events.
-Kevin
Now up ~300 and starts to retreat again....?!?! :eek: :eek:
EDIT: and now down 100+. :shakehead
EDIT 2: and back to positive territory. I'm dizzy and I've only been watching this for 30 minutes.
-Kevin
Went up 700 points before I got my fricken order in. Going to wait and see what happens next week, but that could've been the bottom.
oddlycalm
10-10-08, 04:37 PM
Can probably throw all the conventional technical analysis out the window at this point.
Yeah, just looked at the weekly S&P for the last 5yrs and the words "off the chart" are no longer just words. :( Velocity indicators like Rate Of Change and ADX are quite literally trailing off the chart.
Still, this is the kind of velocity that does cause markets to bottom for the very reason that FTG posted; people are looking at equities prices that seem very attractive compared to just last week. We will see if we reach a bottom in October. Even if we do though it may not be THE bottom.
I'm not a short-medium term trader so I'll remain on the sidelines until the monthly buy signal kicks in.
oc
Methanolandbrats
10-10-08, 06:09 PM
Not the bottom. A whole lot of banks and business' have to go broke yet. Consumer has yet to roll over and kill earnings. Government bailout cash just beginning to flow. They'll shovel more at it, lot's more and that will kill dollar and lead to inflation. Good times ahead.
Insomniac
10-11-08, 12:50 PM
The S&P 500 adjusted for inflation is back to June 1996, or February 2003 if you ignore inflation (which was the U.S. coming out of the recession following the tech boom). It's a massive sell off that goes beyond the assessment of each company's true value. Earnings are surely going to drop, but not that much that fast. Investors (and the news media) love to use long term forecasts based on short term data to price a stock.
JLMannin
10-11-08, 03:24 PM
I may be selfish, but if options traders and day traders lose their asses over this and they step out of the market manipulation business, then I will accept some pain to kill off the cancer.
Insomniac
10-11-08, 06:13 PM
I may be selfish, but if options traders and day traders lose their asses over this and they step out of the market manipulation business, then I will accept some pain to kill off the cancer.
Day traders don't have the ability to really manipulate the markets. They do provide liquidity to regular investors.
I may be selfish, but if options traders and day traders lose their asses over this and they step out of the market manipulation business, then I will accept some pain to kill off the cancer.
Hedge funds: not day traders. For the record I called a bottom at about 3:00 Friday. Banks are reporting earnings this week. Monday is turkey day for Canucks. I might jump back in Tuesday. We'll see. Good time to buy Canuck banks. They've taken the same hit but have much less sub prime exposure. Regulated. Pay good dividends. Very liquid. Canuck buck has sunk against the $US a lot recently. Good diversification for an American investor too.
eiregosod
10-12-08, 10:12 AM
Gov just loaned AIG another 40 billion.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/08/news/companies/aig/index.htm?cnn=yes
no wonder they need the money, the top execs get to stay in the top hotels.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/07/aig-congressional-hearing_n_132614.html
Gov just loaned AIG another 40 billion.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/08/news/companies/aig/index.htm?cnn=yes
no wonder they need the money, the top execs get to stay in the top hotels.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/07/aig-congressional-hearing_n_132614.html
Does anyone know where all this money is coming from?
Insomniac
10-12-08, 01:03 PM
no wonder they need the money, the top execs get to stay in the top hotels.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/07/aig-congressional-hearing_n_132614.html
SNL on Thursday night was funny when they were "talking" about that.
Are we headed toward hyperinflation? I plan to start stockpiling food and water just in case.
edit: Jim's not telling them what they want to hear. lol
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Told ya. Could made 6 grand in a day and a half if I'd followed my own advice.
Oh well. There will be another massively oversold market in 10-30 years.
Methanolandbrats
10-13-08, 04:29 PM
Told ya. Could made 6 grand in a day and a half if I'd followed my own advice.
Oh well. There will be another massively oversold market in 10-30 years.
It was a bounce, that's all. Most of the country is bankrupt, you'll get another chance at the "bottom".
oddlycalm
10-13-08, 06:43 PM
Told ya. Could made 6 grand in a day and a half if I'd followed my own advice.
Oh well. There will be another massively oversold market in 10-30 years.
Thanks, but I'll wait for a long term buy signal before getting back in the pool on the long side. I'm too lazy for short term trades on reaction rallies where I have to pay attention, time the order perfectly and then adjust the sell stops daily. I like to catch long term up trends with index tracking stocks or funds and take pot shots at broad side of the barn on long term declines with SPX puts. It leaves more time for forum posting, beer drinking and napping. :gomer:
oc
Sean Malone
10-13-08, 09:29 PM
It leaves more time for forum posting, beer drinking and napping. :gomer:
oc
I'm trying to figure out how to make money doing those three things. :)
Methanolandbrats
10-13-08, 09:49 PM
I'm trying to figure out how to make money doing those three things. :)
OEX puts and calls on panic up and down days work like that, only it's coffee, posting and NO napping till after the market closes. :) Then you work in the beer.
From under 8,000 to over 9,500, where it's heading based on futures ain't a bounce. That's almost 20%. To get another 20% you need to get to about 11,500 which we might not hit for years.
I'm buying on the bell. It's still way below where I sold and I'm not going to worry about it for another decade. My broker was predicting a lot of year end tax loss selling though, so you may want to keep that in mind. Personally, I think that everyone who doesn't feel the need to attend a McCain rally for primal scream therapy is going to be very optimistic after the election results. Also, clearly the possibility of a world ride recession is priced into stocks right now and I don't think that's going to happen. One reason stocks are bouncing so high right now is because of the aggressive actions by governments around the world are taking to make sure there isn't a recession.
Anyway, the main lesson is that it is extremely difficult for the little guy to make money off market timing. The best advice is don't try. ignore most of the ups and downs.The one exception to that, is that if you're smart you should be able to see a bubble once every 10 or 20 years. Pets.com buying Super Bowl ad was a sign of stupidity. So was selling millions of mortgages to people who can't afford them. If you're not greedy on the upide of the bubble, and don't try to milk it for every penny, you should be able to get out before the bubble bursts. And don't be too greedy when getting back in. Going for an extra 2% on the downside, I lost 15% on the upside.
Back on topic, you the taxpayer now also owns a whole bunch of banks.
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