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View Full Version : A New-Look Field and the Ever-Shrinking Competition Gap



rabbit
04-26-03, 02:50 AM
The 2003 version of the BPCCWSPBFKGKRNEKDAOWMNEDFMMRZ has taken a fair amount of criticism for its lack of top-level talent. In a few instances this criticism is warranted. But for the most part, what has been perceived as a shortage of talent is, instead, a product of short period of time many teams had to put their program together. Even now the season is just two months and three races old. Despite the young season, we are already seeing a closing of the competition gap.

I took a look at the timing sheets from the final qualifying sessions at St. Petersburg, the opening race, and Long Beach, the most recent event. Fortunately, for comparison's sake, both tracks are very similar. Unfortunately, because they are not identical, my findings have to betaken with a grain of salt. St. Petersburg was shorter by just over a tenth of a mile, but had one extra turn. So while there was less distance to cover, there was one more point where a driver could gain or lose time.

Below you will see, next to each driver’s name, his gap back from the fastest car in the final qualifying session at St. Petersburg followed by his gap back from the fastest car in the final qualifying session at Long Beach and the difference between the two. A note, Roberto Gonzales and Alex Yoong were combined because the comparison is concerned more with the overall improvement of the field, not individual improvement.


Grand Prix of St. Petersburg (GPSP)
1.806-Mile Temporary Street Circuit
13 turns
Pole time - 1:00.928

Grand Prix of Long Beach (GPLB)
1.968-Mile Temporary Street Circuit
11 turns
Pole time - 1:08.177

Driver / GPSP / GPLB / Change
S. Bourdais / 0.000 / 0.372 / +0.372
P. Tracy / 0.548 / 0.552 / +0.004
A. Fernandez / 0.821 / 0.607 / -0.214
P. Carpentier / 0.831 / 0.483 / -0.348
M. Jourdain Jr. / 0.884 / 0.000 / -0.884
M. Haberfeld / 0.937 / 1.837 / +0.900
B. Junqueira / 1.052 / 0.360 / -0.692
J. Vasser / 1.066 / 1.588 / 0.522
M. Dominguez / 1.173 / 1.045 / -0.128
D. Manning / 1.311 / 0.958 / -0.353
R. Hunter-Reay / 1.378 / 1.182 / -0.196
A. Tagliani / 1.595 / 0.194 / -1.401
O. Servia / 1.919 / 0.644 / -1.275
P. Lemarie / 2.025 / 1.559 / -0.466
R. Moreno / 2.122 / 0.851 / -1.541
T. Monteiro / 3.059 / 1.915 / -1.144
J. Camathias / 3.313 / 3.126 / -0.187
R.Gnz/A.Yng / 4.020 / 3.389 / -0.631
R. Lavin / 5.599 / 2.905 / -2.694

Here's the breakdown...
16 drivers dropped time
3 drivers did not (2 of those 3 started in the front row at GPSP)
9 dropped more than a half second
5 of those dropped more than a full second
0.600 was the average improvement of the field
6 drivers were within a second of the polesitter at GPSP
10 drivers were within a second of the polesitter at GPLB

As you can see, the competition gap has closed significantly and will continue to do so as the teams and drivers gain experience. I do not expect the closure rate maintain its current pace, but I would not be at all surprised to see 14 to 15 cars within a second of each other at many tracks as the season progresses.

cart7
04-26-03, 08:11 AM
I think the gap will close as the old F3000 and F1 testers begin to adapt to the cars, pitting and the tracks. I think they may close some of that gap at Brands since guys like PT don't have experience there like they do. I think the cream will rise midway through the season and we'll get a better handle on who's worth keeping in 2004 and who isn't.

RARules
04-26-03, 05:04 PM
I compared the average time off of the pole time (including a zero for the leader (I'm being lazy...)) and got the following:
GPSP: 1.771
GPLB: 1.240
diff: -0.531

The statistic should probably be controlled by track length or just as a percentage of the pole time. Also perhaps by number of turns. But then we're getting into multiple regression territory.

Normalizing for pole time (compared to 1 minute), I get:
GPSP: 1.742
GPLB: 1.094
diff: -0.648

This is a simple stat to compare within track type. Not a bad thing to revisit after each race.